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German ZEW Jumped to Positive For the First Time Since July 200721.04.2009 (09:30)
German
April ZEW jumped to 13.0 from -3.5 in March. This was much stronger
than our median of 3.0 and the first time since July 2007 that the
reading is in positive territory, thus indicating that optimists
outnumber pessimists. The current conditions indicator continued to
decline, in line with expectations, with the reading falling to -91.6
from -89.4. This means data are consistent with at least two more
quarters of negative growth, but also confirm that confidence has
bottomed out and support expectations for a gradual stabilization of
overall growth ahead. Weak growth is likely to lead to another rate cut
in May, but as confidence indicators start to improve it will also
prompt council members to start thinking beyond the current crisis and
data support those at the ECB arguing for a modest 25 bp move combined
with a signal that the refi rate has bottomed at 1.00%.
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